Digital Nerd

Monday, August 15, 2005

Podcasts: All the Rage or About to Fizzle?

Via NYT:
As more people subscribe to podcasts, market researchers are struggling to assess podcasting's reach. The Pew Internet and American Life Project stepped into the fray last April with a report that six million people had listened to podcasts - audio recordings posted online. Pew's figure was derided by some as an overestimate.

Now two other researchers have tried to predict the future of podcasting, and the variance between their results is instructive. Marc Freedman of the Diffusion Group predicted that 56.8 million people would be using podcasts in 2010. "Podcasting will be a common feature, integrated into browsers and digital media players," he said.

But Ted Schadler of Forrester Research predicted that 12.3 million households - about 30 million people - would use podcasts by 2010. His forecast assumes that many early adopters will give up on podcasting and that others will never pick it up. Often, he said, "We find both that the early adoption rate differs completely from the later adoption rate, and that people use things and they just don't like them, and after a year they stop." ALEX MINDLIN

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